As September unfolds, Bitcoin (BTC) remains entrenched in consolidation, with the maiden crypto struggling to stage a rally. Along these lines, market analysts are painting a somber picture of Bitcoin’s prospects in September, drawing from historical patterns.
Notably, cryptocurrency trading expert and analyst Michaël van de Poppe, in an X (formerly Twitter) post on September 7, pointed out that Bitcoin confronts a potentially turbulent month ahead, characterizing it as a ‘month of destruction.’
His overview comes as the flagship cryptocurrency finds itself grappling to sustain a valuation above $25,000.
“Bitcoin is currently holding onto a significant level of support. It’s around the $25,500 barrier. In the meantime, we’re facing a month of destruction. September. <…> Bitcoin faces a crucial support level it should be holding onto, as it’s currently resting on the 200-Week MA,” he said.
Bitcoin September prospects
Taking a deep dive into the historical and cyclical aspects of the cryptocurrency markets, Poppe highlighted some possible trends that might play out.
Poppe observed that in pre-halving years, August and September tend to be turbulent for Bitcoin. This pattern has been consistent over the years, suggesting a cyclical nature to Bitcoin’s performance.
He cited that in August 2015, Bitcoin experienced a substantial correction, dropping toward the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, it is noteworthy that Bitcoin never closed beneath this level during that period, hinting at resilience in the cryptocurrency.
Similarly, in 2019, Bitcoin once again faced challenges during August, with a significant correction. This was followed by a smaller dip in November of the same year. This pattern demonstrates the potential for extended periods of volatility in the cryptocurrency market.
Notably, Poppe made a striking comparison between the current market and the cycle in 2015. He noted that, given the influx of new participants, particularly institutional investors, into the cryptocurrency markets, there could be correlations with the 2015 cycle.
While technical analysis focused on the price action in 2019 does not provide a clear-cut case for Bitcoin’s future, the parallels drawn with the 2015 cycle suggest that investors should exercise caution. The increasing involvement of institutional players in the cryptocurrency space adds an additional layer of complexity to predicting Bitcoin’s price movements.
This has been underscored by the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF), which is anticipated to catalyze increased institutional involvement in the cryptocurrency arena.
Bitcoin’s expected price downtrend
At the same time, senior technical analyst at Kitco News, Jim Wyckoff, indicated that despite efforts by the bulls to stabilize the price, Bitcoin bears still maintain an edge. However, he highlighted that Bitcoin remains vulnerable to a prolonged price decline.
“September Bitcoin futures prices are once again slightly down in early U.S. trading Friday. Not much new late this week. Bulls are working to stabilize prices, but the bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. A price downtrend line remains in place on the daily chart to suggest more sideways-to-lower price action in the near term,” he said.
Bitcoin price analysis
Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $25,873, showing a struggle to sustain a price above $26,000.
Bitcoin’s technical analysis maintains a bearish stance. The one-day indicators obtained from TradingView concur with a ‘sell’ signal at 14. Furthermore, moving averages are for a ‘strong sell’ at 14, while oscillators suggest a ‘buy’ at 2.
In the broader context, as Bitcoin faces yet another test of its resilience in September, the primary focus remains on monitoring the $25,500 support level.
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