Pantera Capital, a prominent US hedge fund with a focus on cryptocurrencies, unveiled its new “Blockchain Letter” report.
In it, the crypto asset manager notably reaffirmed its optimistic outlook on Bitcoin’s (BTC) price for 2024 and beyond, while also delving into the anticipated effects of the upcoming Bitcoin halving scheduled for April next year.
Considering the impact of previous halving events on the BTC price, Pantera sees Bitcoin’s value rising to $35,000 ahead of the halving and to a whopping $148,000 after it.
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
– Pantera noted in the report.
If materialized, the surge to $148,000 would represent a massive price increase of more than 460% from the current BTC price.
Previous halvings’ impact on Bitcoin supply and price
Pantera’s predictions for post-halving Bitcoin price surge heavily rely on earlier halving events, and how they influenced BTC prices.
Notably, the hedge fund said the 2016 halving reduced Bitcoin’s supply of new coins by only one-third as much as the first event in 2012.
“Interestingly, it had exactly one-third the price impact.”
– Pantera added.
The 2020 halving, on the other hand, reduced BTC’s supply by 43% relative to the 2016 halving, and had a 23% as big an effect on the cryptocurrency’s price.
Bitcoin’s post-halving rallies and cycle bottoms
Elsewhere in the report, Pantera reflected on how Bitcoin tends to print a cycle of low and high roughly equal lengths of time from each block subsidy halving.
“Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, climbed leading into it, and then exploded to the upside afterward.”
– it wrote.
The post-halving rallies in the largest cryptocurrency lasted an average of 480 days, the hedge fund explained – from the halving moment to the peak of that subsequent bull cycle.
Having said that, one could argue that the 2022 bear market bottom marked the current price cycle bottom for Bitcoin.
“IF history were to repeat itself, the price of bitcoin should have troughed December 30, 2022.”
– the hedge fund explained.
As a result, knowing that the next halving date is in April 2024, BTC could be trending around the $35,000 mark – a figure it is still on track to attain.
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